Net Zero Pathway Calculator

A net zero pathway is a year-by-year plan for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to as close to zero as possible, with any remaining residual emissions offset by carbon removals. It matters because setting a structured trajectory — rather than a single end-year target — keeps organisations accountable and ensures reductions happen continuously rather than all at the last moment.

Scope 1 covers direct emissions from sources your organisation owns or controls, such as company vehicles and on-site combustion. Scope 2 covers indirect emissions from purchased electricity, heat, or steam. Scope 3 covers all other indirect emissions across your value chain — including supplier activities, business travel, employee commuting, and product end-of-life — and typically represents the largest share of a company's footprint.

Most organisations use 2019 as their base year because it reflects pre-COVID activity levels and is the reference point recommended by the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi). However, you can use any year from 2010 onwards for which you have reliable emissions data. The base year is the benchmark against which all future reductions are measured.

The calculator divides your total baseline emissions by the number of years between your base year and net zero target year, adjusted for your chosen reduction pathway (linear, front-loaded, or back-loaded). It then expresses this as a percentage of your starting emissions per year, giving you a concrete annual decarbonisation rate to target.

Science-based guidance — including from the SBTi — recommends that carbon credits or removals should cover no more than around 10% of your baseline emissions as a long-term residual. The remaining 90%+ must come from actual emissions reductions within your operations and value chain. Offsets are a complement to deep decarbonisation, not a substitute for it.

A front-loaded pathway delivers larger reductions in the earlier years, which is preferred by climate science because it reduces cumulative emissions and is more aligned with 1.5°C scenarios. A back-loaded pathway reduces emissions slowly at first and accelerates later — it carries more risk because delayed action typically leads to higher costs and greater lock-in of high-carbon assets.

This tool is designed to give you a broad indicative picture of what a net zero trajectory looks like and is informed by SBTi principles, including the recommendation to reduce absolute emissions by at least 90% before relying on offsets. For formal SBTi target-setting and validation, you should work with a qualified climate advisor and submit targets through the official SBTi process.

This calculator provides a simplified simulation based on the emissions figures you enter. It is designed to give you a directional understanding of your reduction requirements and is useful for early-stage planning and strategy conversations. It does not account for sector-specific benchmarks, country-level energy grid changes, or company growth projections. For a tailored, audit-ready plan, consult a climate specialist.