Enter patient details — age, sex, ejection fraction, NYHA class, BMI, systolic blood pressure, creatinine, and key clinical factors — to estimate 1-year and 3-year survival probability in congestive heart failure using the MAGGIC risk model. Results show percentage survival odds and a risk breakdown chart to help contextualize prognosis.
1-Year Survival Probability
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3-Year Survival Probability
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MAGGIC Risk Score
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Risk Category
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Life expectancy with heart failure varies widely based on factors like age, ejection fraction, NYHA class, kidney function, and comorbidities. On average, 1-year survival rates range from around 75–90% for mild cases to below 50% for advanced cases. This calculator uses the validated MAGGIC model to provide a personalized estimate based on your specific clinical profile.
Systolic heart failure (reduced ejection fraction, HFrEF) is generally associated with a worse prognosis than heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). An ejection fraction below 35% significantly increases risk. However, modern therapies including beta-blockers, ACE inhibitors, and ARBs have substantially improved survival rates over the past two decades.
Women with heart failure tend to have a slightly better prognosis than men at the same age and ejection fraction, according to the MAGGIC data. Women are also more likely to have heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). That said, individual outcomes depend heavily on other clinical factors, not sex alone.
NYHA Class III heart failure — characterized by marked limitation of physical activity and symptoms with less-than-ordinary exertion — carries a significantly worse prognosis than Class I or II. Studies suggest 1-year mortality rates between 15–30% for Class III patients, though this varies considerably with other risk factors and treatment adherence.
Ejection fraction (EF) measures the percentage of blood pumped out of the left ventricle with each beat. An EF below 40% (HFrEF) is associated with higher mortality risk. Each 10% reduction in EF below normal (~55–70%) contributes to a progressively worse prognosis in the MAGGIC model used by this calculator.
Beta-blockers and ACE inhibitors (or ARBs) are cornerstone therapies for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. Clinical trials have shown these medications reduce mortality by 25–35%. In the MAGGIC model, patients not on these medications receive additional risk points, reflecting the survival benefit these drugs provide.
MAGGIC stands for Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure. The MAGGIC risk model was developed from a pooled analysis of over 39,000 heart failure patients across 30 studies. It uses 13 clinical variables to predict 1-year and 3-year all-cause mortality, and is one of the most widely validated prognostic tools for heart failure.
Key strategies include adhering to prescribed medications (beta-blockers, ACEi/ARBs, diuretics), following a low-sodium diet, monitoring daily weight for fluid retention, avoiding smoking and excessive alcohol, managing blood pressure and diabetes, and regular follow-up with a cardiologist. Cardiac rehabilitation programs have also been shown to improve outcomes.