Enter your team's shooting percentage and save percentage to calculate PDO (SPSV%) — the luck indicator used in hockey and soccer analytics. A PDO above 1.000 (or 100%) suggests a team is running hot, while below 1.000 signals potential regression incoming.
PDO (SPSV%)
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PDO as Percentage
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Luck Status
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Deviation from 1.000
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PDO — named after a hockey analytics blogger — is the sum of a team's shooting percentage and save percentage. In hockey, it's typically expressed as a decimal (e.g. 1.000) or as a combined percentage out of 200%. The concept holds that over a large sample, all teams regress toward a PDO of 1.000, making it a useful measure of luck or unsustainable performance.
PDO = Team Shooting Percentage + Team Save Percentage. For example, if your team has a shooting percentage of 8.5% and a save percentage of 91.5%, the PDO is 0.085 + 0.915 = 1.000. Some calculators express this as 100.0% (the percentages summed directly to give a value near 100).
A PDO above 1.000 suggests a team is performing above expectation — often due to luck, an unsustainably hot goalie, or an unusually high shooting percentage. Analysts expect such teams to regress toward 1.000 as the season progresses, meaning their results may worsen even without a change in underlying play.
A PDO below 1.000 indicates a team has been unlucky or is underperforming relative to the quality of chances created and allowed. These teams are candidates for positive regression — their results may improve in future games without necessarily playing better.
Yes. PDO has been adopted in soccer analytics with the same principle: shooting percentage (conversion rate) plus save percentage. The expected long-run mean is still 1.000, and teams significantly above or below are considered to be experiencing luck in their finishing and goalkeeping.
PDO is most meaningful over a larger sample — typically 20+ games in hockey or soccer. Over small samples, randomness in shooting and goaltending can cause extreme PDO values that are not predictive. The larger the sample, the more reliably PDO reflects true luck versus skill.
Occasionally, elite teams with exceptional goaltending or finishing talent can sustain slightly above-average PDO values over long periods. However, the vast majority of extreme PDO readings — especially those above 1.030 or below 0.970 — are temporary. Most analysts treat persistent outliers with skepticism.
When shooting percentage and save percentage are expressed as decimals (e.g. 0.085 and 0.915), PDO is approximately 1.000 at league average. When both percentages are expressed as whole numbers (e.g. 8.5 and 91.5), PDO sums to approximately 100.0. Both representations convey the same information — the baseline is simply 1.000 or 100.0 depending on the convention used.